Saturday, 9 May 2015

Post Election campaign statistics, analysis and post election thoughts

After a long catch up sleep ( as my Daughter would say I need at least several "sleeps" to catch up! ) I can now look back at what turned out to be one of the most effective and cost efficient campaigns that I have run in recent years.

Some statistics:

Materials used 4x laser toner cartridges 2x Boxes of bulk 80gms FSC certified paper.
Print runs using around 450 Watts/Hour electricity (thats actually low power!)
Cloud based data backup so that all articles can be shared with group of people for contribution and editing. This approach also allows Web page publication from out in the field with editorial control back in the office for final polishing.

With some for the articles published within 30 minutes of the situation occurring, such as the story of the foreign press secretly filming residents being filmed!

We had a fresh edition of a new print run every day of the campaign. This exceeded the small number of very big print runs, normally three, from the parties. Using this approach meant timely information was able to be incorporated into the edition. Such as the Labour announcement of "Rent Controls" This article was re-edited into the layout on same day as the announcement and delivered.

All of this for the cost of the items I have listed above and well inside the total allowed costs of circa £1000 per ward. I am sure that my campaign costs are significantly cheaper than all the major parties, but since they don't actually publish there true costs we will never know!

I do know for a fact that all parties have used the postal delivery to deliver many leaflets, Labour is well known to use its post workers union members to freely deliver leaflets with the regular post, whilst Tories pay street runners (same as pizza delivery ppl). We on the other hand used actual people on the ground living locally to hand deliver on the day and each and every day of the campaign. I repeat each and EVERY day of the campaign.

The Campaign:

Getting information out in quick order was key and we had a constant delivery each and every day, personally I was out every day between 8:30am and 7pm with rest stops for coffee breaks and lunch naturally! I did this every day of the campaign. Many of the Web publications were done from my coffee shop in Hampstead! What was interesting is whilst out during the week we hardly ever encountered any party activists. Only on two separate days did I actually see the Tory candidate late afternoon delivering in Willow Road.

Sure on weekends the party teams had action days, which "they" had kindly informed one of my informants the precise place and time! Useful for my "immediate" counter planning to occur some hours after they had finished! If they did leaflets I arranged canvass session and vice versa!

This is the advantage of being a "Networked" Independent candidate as it allows flexibility and responsiveness to changing situations and responses. Rather difficult for the parties to change a leaflet that they have just printed 10,000 copies! But using our system, we just build into the days next print run. We had two print runs on several campaign days when we had more feet on the ground.

Campaign area:

The extent of the campaign was much wider than the other parties. We covered North End, South End Green (including the whole Parliament Hill residential area), parts of Belsize Park and Frognal and Fitzjohn's (where my office is based) and naturally the whole of Hampstead Town itself. The parts that made the difference was North End (so many people told me that only the Tories had put leaflets there, they felt very cut off from the Hampstead run). That allowed me to tightly focus campaign messages only to target one party competition. Same in Belsize Park, again apart from one Action day per week I hardly saw any camapigners on the streets, with the Belsize councillors I met occasionally!

Being based locally In Belsize Park we are in very central location for Belsize, Hampstead and Frognal and Fitzjohns campaigning. Again I was surprised at just how little activity we witnessed on the streets. Whilst canvassing which we did very robustly we were told in Hampstead Town, even in the Flask Walk surrounding roads that when I canvassed them this was the first time, this was within two weeks of the poll, amazing stuff. Same thing in Belsize and Frognal and Fitzjohn's whilst canvassing people for the National GE2015 vote, people told me that I was the first to talk to them.

Everyone liked what I was about, so much so that many had asked me to consider creating a new Party offering together with emblem for my next venture.  Most people felt that just being an Independent did not give a USP to them to hock on to.

In my analysis of my results in Hampstead Town I would tend to agree with them. All my personal pledge votes came through YES ( I know this as I have met several people post vote told me that I had got their vote, these are my favourite votes! ).

I lost Hampstead Town but I knew before I started that it was not possible to beat the Tories here and at the same time of an expected higher turn out General Election. In fact most people at the door and in the streets will well remember my explaining that my first Independent bid last year in Belsize Park was "Social Experiment #1 and that Hampstead Town was Social Experiment #2 and that the primary purpose which apart from allowing residents the opportunity to elect me as next ward councillor was also a "live experiment" for me to collect information and ideas to adapt a new party creation and manifesto offering in the future.

Like most voters I am tired of the old school politics traditional parties and would like to see more "People Politics" in our communities. Like all ideals it is an evolving concept.

I have also explained to people that I may decide from my social experiments conclude that the tradional Party machine model is best. Hence create and form a "new" party model or join a pre-existing one, if they were brave enough to have me! The big question is could I expand my ideas further, thats the main requirement.

The Results:

I got all my pledge votes in which was great and a warm big thank you to all of you that supported me and decided to vote for me for the local Hampstead Town by-election rather than your traditional parties that I know many of you said you would normally have voted for.

However, apart from the pledge votes I did not receive party faithful votes, because naturally, I am not a party! NO Independent ever is. In that sense I have concluded that being an Independent only makes a possibility to actually win IF and this is the vital point, IF an Independent has a USP (Unique Selling Point) such as a campaign to help save "The Heath from a fly over or street built over it" where all parties were for the proposal and only the solitary "campaigner" the Independent together with the local people was against the proposal. In that yes I know a very artificial and made-up silly situation the Independent would probably stand a good chance to win an election!

But since that is never going to happen the USP must be something else, therefore, by definition must be a new form of party politics with a whole new branding something NEW to tempt the elector to change a life time voting habit.

The Count:

The count was rather long, like 5 hours long wait to count circa 5000 sheets of paper, my agent who is from New York finds the whole British way of manual counting very quaint indeed, I saw her eyes turning around watching bank clerks and council staff counting paper with rubber bangs on their fingers. It could easily be something from the Victorian era as probably not a lot has changed. Where are the counting machines my agent kept asking!

That aside the whole experience with my agent and myself alongside the other party agents and observers was striking. My old Tory colleagues would ask me if I really thought that I could win, they did not appear to get it that I was performing a Social Experiment and collecting information. They see winning as the only objective.

Back in 2009 I was head hunted by Chris Philp MP and recruited to become one of the Belsize Park candidates for the Tories from the Liberal Democrats where I had been both a member and on the Executive in the H&K-LD branch.

In fact I together with two other leading ex Libdems had been also recruited to the Hampstead and Kilburn Conservative association around about a similar time. In fact one of the two other LibDem defectors become the Chairman of the H&K CA branch I had been made the Belsize branch Deputy Chair Political so therefore, I had regained a position of the Executive also on the H&K-CA.

Anyway returning to the count! It always amuses me when fellow ex LibDem or Tory colleagues remind me in conversation that I had been with (in their words) all parties. I had never been with the Labour party but had flirted with them at the time of the "Stop the Cuts" marches and "Save the NHS" campaigns. What I am sure even three years since I have become an Independent is that none of my ex colleagues appear to understand is that whilst I held senior positions within both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives party was that I had been learning and absorbing the different political processes and methodologies to gain an Top-Down overview that few campaigners and politicians would ever have.

Put simply it was a great benefit to have been with leading parties not least of which being with the Conservative old Tory Bow Group for several years and actually being elected as Membership Secretary, a post I sadly had to resigned once I had decided to become an Independent as officer membership was strictly only for Conservative members!

Post Election thoughts:

A good campaign is one that you feel the same at the end as at the start, with no recriminations or thoughts of "if only we had done this rather than that" negativity type of thoughts.

Good campaign and would do same again if called upon.

As for the sheer bad luck of my ex Tory colleagues finally taking Hampstead & Kilburn, I was in shock. Having worked personally back in 2009 and 2010 for and on behalf of Chris Philp now MP for Croydon South, to get elected for Hampstead & Kilburn and losing by the smallest of margins of 42 votes.

I really thought that my ex colleagues in H&K on the Simon Marcus campaign had it sorted out this time. To lose by 1,138 votes is so galling I really feel for Simon Marcus having met him personally on previous campaign meetings and on my local campaign for Hampstead Town.

I am sure their H&K agent must be going through all the permutations of "what if's" and "if only" type recriminations. To lose two General Elections must be particularly gutting, I certainly would not like to be in his shoes, thats for sure.

What was strange is that I saw so few if any activists out in Belsize Park, Frognal and Fitzjohn's and Hampstead Town wards and when we did only on the "action days" that I had received "intel" on!

Many probably "would vote" Tory residents I have canvassed in these wards told me that they simply only received "stuff" in the letter boxes and were not canvassed or talk to personally with and that if they had, would be more motivated to wish to vote and for the Tories. As it was we did help promote Simon Marcus as being the "only viable candidate" for Hampstead & Kilburn in my Twitter feeds and on my  some of my articles. However, an Independent helping to promote a common sense party candidate is not easy.

I suspect that as always, just as in the case of 2010 with the Chris Philp campaign that "safe" Tory wards were not worked hard enough to GOTV (Get out the vote), especially in 2010 when it was local elections on same day and most councillors and candidates were also the principle activists were heard by residents rather pushing for themselves than promoting Chris Philp, no names stated here but I do know of examples!

Returning to 2015 It was certain that in the final days of the campaign we did see rather more Labour supporters out on the streets than Tory activists, in point of fact from my "intel" all the wards were swarming with "red" activists. Nurses and other union activists all ploughing in to all the H&K wards on the ground, something that H&K Tories were unable and unlikely to have matched.

But the political dynamic in Camden is different to most of the country it has always been very "champaign red" and very Labour. One must remember that Hampstead, Parliament Hill was the home of George Orwell and many leading Labour activists of the day.

It amused me tremendously on Election Day to walk pass the H&K Conservative Constituency Association HQ in Heath Hurst Road only to walk pass the other Labour ward HQ in the same road right before the polling station with a road runner with car engine still running munching a-ready-meal type snack all "set and go" for transporting deliveries or elderly voters on the day, clearly a very well run organisation and they won by 1,138 votes proves had worked.

Clearly, beating the opposition right "from under the noses" must be very galling. Yes, I feel for Simon Marcus but just like Chris Philp MP I am sure will win a seat next time round, but probably not in Hampstead and Kilburn! To win H&K requires a whole new mindset which is something that the "current makeup" is unlikely to achieve. I did walk pass H&KCCA HQ to tell them of certain "other" very heavy campaign activities taking place in Hampstead Town but was told to clear off by their agent!  Right. Got that message loud and clear! I also see the results from the count. Clearly, the agent must be wondering what helpful advice I may have given HAD he instead listen, or perhaps since we were colleagues been friendly at the very least! After all I am an Independent and am very much a conservative with strong ties to the Conservative values and beliefs so clearly I was rooting for Simon Marcus to win. When I met Simon some days earlier had personally told him that I was rooting for him to win.

But that is politics for you. If you leave a party on principles like I did with the NHS Reform Bill then you are a traitor to the cause and obviously can not be trusted!

Later at 9:10pm with less than an hour to the end of poll on Election Day I bumped in to some ex Tory colleagues in Willow Road and we spoke briefly before resuming our respective GOTV activities, they were curious why I had resigned my senior executive position with the H&KCCA I briefly explained that I resigned on principle against the Tory NHS Reform Bill, one of the activists said that she was with me on that one as she was a nurse! I rest my case, I felt great, I wanted to embrace them (but I quickly regained my stature!).

I had a big smile in the knowledge that I had indeed done the right thing back in 2012. We live by our principles and should we lose them we lose ourselves.

Nigel Rumble

Very tired prospective councillor for 
Hampstead Town



Thursday, 7 May 2015

Keats Community Library Polling station besieged by North American film crews and the press!

The small quaint narrow streets of Keats Community Library, which for today is one of three polling stations around Hampstead Town for the by-election and national General Election 2015 is besieged by press, film and TV crews and journalists from North America.

As candidate for Hampstead Town by-election I had to run the gauntlet to observe the vote and obtain the count figures for the hour.

I was first interviewed by Griff Witte from The Washington Post, which came as a surprise especially as our local Camden New Journal and Ham & Ham did not interview the local candidates this election. But hey if the Americans are interested thats cool with me.

Later in the afternoon we had a TV crew from Canadian TV (CTV) no less doing a very professional job. I was then astonished when a large contingent of observers from Washington came over to get the official tour with the Polling Station officer giving an explanation of how it all works here in the UK!

Being a professional photographer myself I had quick words with the Sunday Times freelance Julian Andrews covering the proceedings just getting into my shot above!

Well thats it from my local Keats Community Library.

Camden council risks election lawyers


Camden council has released the Birthday Borough - Camden is 50 edition of "Camden" which contained a politically  written Welcome message by Labour Leader of the Council councillor Sarah Hayward. In this message she states "This magazine comes out just days after the General Election..."

But naturally the Labour lead council just let it out one week early. I have picked up copies all over the place in Hampstead, Frognal & Fitzjohns and Belsize wards. 

This is both outrageous and not playing by the clearly written rules of governance that all Councillors and councils are governed.

There may well be an enquiry post elections.

ELECTION DAY SPECIAL

Today all politicians get to stand down and take the back stage for once! It is now the turn of "you" the electors to decide (assuming that you did not elect to decide several weeks ago in a postal vote!) who will represent you in Hampstead Town as your next councillor, naturally, I await your decision with great hope and anticipation.

It will be an honour to serve you as your duly elected Independent councillor, I believe that it would be the first time an Independent serves on a Camden council.

So your vote is not only democracy in progress but should you elect me as your first Independent it would also be of historic importance in local democracy too.

But the journey to get to this special day was meeting you and especially all of you who not only gave me the time to discuss policies and ideas but actually invited me into your homes, Thank you.

Wednesday, 6 May 2015

A wet but perfect last day of campaigning


Another perfect if rather wet blustery day for the last campaigning day in the local Hampstead Town by-election.

This has been one of the best campaigns that I have been involved with for two vital reasons;

1. Because I have lived in the Hampstead area all my life and it is where I am most often with friends and family. I have made many films here and done an entire photo collection of this most iconic of places.  I love Hampstead. 

2. You, yes all of you in Hampstead Town has shown me such warmth and openness. Those of you who not only opened your front doors to me to talk about my campaign but invited me in to your homes to take the weight of my tired feet and re-gain my stength a very big special thank you. :-)

With luck I hope to be elected your next and only Independent councillor for Hampstead Town. That choice is your choice, it is your given right to elect which party candidate or independent candidate you wish to serve you. This true democracy in progress.

But my pledges I made to you in person or in my literature I will do as promised if successfully elected as your councillor.

I also pledge that should I successfully be elected as your Independent councillor that I will not move over with a political party during my 3 year term of office, but remain the Independent voice of reason.


Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Tories secretly filming residents in their homes whilst out canvassing this evening

Whilst out early this evening I observed a film crew filming from the pavement an interview between a family of three living in a pretty cottage home overlooking the iconic St. John's Church in Downshire Hill.

Turns out it was Cllr Leila Roy from Belsize Park on the doors of Hampstead Town.

After the interview was over I called on the house to find out what was going on and was told that the family would be making an official complaint for secretly being filmed without permission or consent. I was shocked and appalled, especially knowing that Cllr Leila Roy works as a freelance television researcher, I believe for the BBC. 

Apparently, the Mother who was called to the door was filmed without any warning that a film crew was filming her being canvassed. When challenged by the daughter the Tories explained it was for an Asian TV channel.

The question is what was a Belsize Cllr doing filming residents without prior consent in Hampstead Town anyway. Clearly it was a Conservative CCHQ lead operation. They did appear to be a party intern in the film team.

As a professional filmmaker myself I know how vital it is to always get the required permissions and consent for any kind of filming of people. Clearly this secret filming had been going on prior to them being busted by the vigilant Daughter.

I have asked prior permission from the family member to write this blog entry about the incident, she agreed so long as I do not mention the precise address or their name. This I have agreed to do.

I will be keeping a watch out for any more underhand tricks of this kind

The Hampstead Landscape has changed underground!

Since 2010 and the Tory lead coalition government, so much power has been devolved to the councils in terms of planning and listed building works.

Most councils and especially Labour lead councils have gone into apathy and agree more readily to plans that in the past would have been thrown out!

I talk to more and more to local hard working families every day and hear heartfelt stories of how the situation was made worse by the intervention by Eric Pickles MP with his so-called Localism Bill.  Perhaps his vision had been well intended but the end product is a shambles at the local grass roots level.

Any group it seems can create a local franchise and make a request to Camden that years ago would have been unthinkable.

I have heard many examples of very deep excavations going down 2 or 3 storeys down very close to water level.

The use of reinforced concrete means that water ingress is NOT a problem for the property developer as they protect against ingress BUT can be for adjoining properties not water protected, I have also heard of peoples homes actually leaning to one side slightly as a by-product of such works.

That is nothing compared to the noise and disruption that can last years in these complex engineering projects costing millions.

We need action now to curb what is a direct exploitation of a Tory born Localism Bill, clearly Tory councillors are unable to fight own party policies. 

But I as your prospective Independent councillor can and will have the determination to fight to readdress this madness plaguing Hampstead.

Note: The photo was taken 2 days ago in Downshire Hill and is used to illustrate the type of deep excavation works going on in Hampstead. It does not imply that other residents in different parts of Hampstead recalling there experiences are the same in Downshire Hill.

Monday, 4 May 2015

Bank Holiday Special


Basement excavations and demolition rebuilds continue to plague this unique part of Hampstead. 

I sense the heartfelt frustrations from victims of this most antisocial experience that any home owner may find themselves exposed to.

Years of noise, disruption and blight.
Most tell me that existing councillors promise at every election that they will look into the problem but fail to deliver through, to help make improvements to the planning system to block many of these massive undertakings on people's back yards.

Some folks have suffered for nine years with little respite between works caught like in a middle of a sandwich between different work projects that can last years.

This must change and will change if I am elected as your Independent councillor for Hampstead Town by-election on Thursday 7th May.

Independent “local” candidate resonates in Hampstead Town

All the Hampstead residents and business owners I have met really love the idea that a "true" Independent who actually lives and works in the local area that he wishes to represent.  Local knowledge is king!

Key tasks that I would pledge to action as your elected councillor 

  1. More local police “on the beat” and improved “999” Fire response times following both FIRE and POLICE station closures.
  2. Curbing the overzealous property developers ruining the peace, tranquility and legacy of Hampstead.
  3. More school places for our children living in the immediate Hampstead local area.
  4. I am totally opposed to the "shambolic" inception of the hastily introduced NHS Reform Bill. Yes the NHS needed efficiency reform but NOT this! This is nothing more than a charter for private health providers to charge between 3 and 5 times in-house NHS costs, to meet false government targets.
  5. Campaigning to mitigate the threatened HS2 traffic congestion on Hampstead roads for a decade.
  6. More effective controls on basement excavation works wrecking decent hard working families with years of blight.
  7. I am fully opposed to the unfair “Mansion Tax” and would lobby against it as your councillor.

I have a legacy of successful campaigns since 2007 mostly on Education, Housing and Policing. Since 2011 I have been member of the Hampstead RFH and St Mary’s Hospital trusts. My family has used both hospitals personally and I know what the REAL issues are and how they can be allowed to develop further. Health is the biggest issue that we as a nation face today and we need constructive help and not the berating news. We do not need extra costs of privatisation for the NHS.
I have been school governor for an outstanding OFSTED local primary school for many years and sitting on the head selection committee using my management skills, I am proud of my achievements. 
Many of the older residents would have known my Family well back in the day, especially as my Mother Denise Rumble was a very long standing member of staff working for Camden Libraries, although she was based principally at Kentish Town Library, she worked frequently at Keats Library, Belsize and Swiss Cottage Libraries for nearly 40 years of service. In fact she was awarded a long service medal from the Camden Mayor of the day. We were all very proud of her amazing achievements and dedication.
I love the Hampstead area and always have and always will, since owning my own home here I have helped many other leaseholders and residents in general as I am a co-opted member of a large successful local TRA located in trying to get a fair deal from their landlords, which at times is not always very easy!
I am particularly proud of my work with the local Belsize SNT Police panel which I first made attendance back in 2007/8 at Hampstead Police Station, now closed.
Together, we will all help keep Hampstead Town the wonderful iconic place that it is and safer too.  Thank you for your continued support.                       

Nigel Rumble